George Osborne – the man who would be prime minister | Media | The Guardian
“I had fought a couple of elections which we won, and I know what it's like Highlighting his ongoing friendship with Mr Cameron, Mr Osborne. Love & relationships Gentleman and scholar: Cameron was an 'oppidan' at Eton – more posh than He knows that, in all probability, this running for the Brexit door represents his last and best chance of achieving his goal. . ( replacing George Osborne, whose pennant is inextricably tied to the Remain. voice their support for the EU's 90 percent collection goals and their .. "We as a country now have to determine which relationship [with the The vapidity, vanity and crassness of Osborne and Cameron are breathtaking.
Allies know that this week is a decisive moment for Osborne, who needs to show that his much vaunted plan A — the elimination of the structural deficit within his original timetable — is on course and that he has a credible plan to help stimulate growth.
Failure will mean Osborne's hopes of succeeding David Cameron towards the end of his second term as prime minister will crumble. Osborne's great rival, London's mayor Boris Johnson — dubbed "bonking Boris" by Osborne's allies — would then become the favourite.
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But the chancellor enters this week utterly convinced that he set the right course in his emergency budget in June and confident that the growth forecasts by the OBR will vindicate his original judgment.
But the Labour party is the only mainstream party in the EU which believes the response to that is to spend more and therefore borrow more. This was portrayed after last year's emergency budget as a pledge to eliminate the structural deficit, the gap between tax revenue and public spending that can only be tackled by tax increases and spending cuts, by the time of the next election.
But Osborne showed that he is a supreme political operator by making it much more elastic than commentators have appreciated. The plan has two goals. First, to ensure that the structural current deficit is in balance bywhich is, crucially, after the next general election.
This excludes capital investment and is a "rolling five-year judgment" which means there will be no fixed point when a definitive judgment can be made. The second goal, to ensure that debt is falling as share of GDP byis a fixed target.
But it simply means that debt in must be lower than the previous year, however high the figure in One member of the Osborne camp smiled as he said: But the autumn statement will make clear that this is an all-weather fiscal strategy. It works in the good times as well as the bad times. Britain has the highest fiscal deficit of any major economy in the industrialised world but is able to borrow at rates which dipped below Germany's this week.
Osborne knows, however, that he must set out a vision of how he will stimulate growth. This will break down into three areas. First, his plan to increase lending to business through a multibillion pound programme of credit easing in which the Treasury will buy up the corporate bonds of small firms. Second, encouraging infrastructure projects. It doesn't work like that because planning is so complicated.
So this is about streamlining planning and bringing on projects that don't need any extra money. A proposal by the venture capitalist Adrian Beecroft to allow employers to fire workers at will has been watered down under pressure from the Liberal Democrats and the Treasury.
Allies say that Osborne is taking great care to craft his central theme because he believes that a list of growth measures will not wash. We did a lot on growth in the budget in March. But this was not really noticed because Libya overshadowed everything and there has been no growth.
But it would be wrong simply to have a list. That would not amount to a vision. But Osborne will be more concerned by a growing debate within the Conservative party over the wisdom of his plans. But on Friday afternoon one of the college's most famous former doctoral students appeared in the library to give a lecture on the future of the euro.Relationship Goals - Couple Goals - Perfect Two 💗 - 2018
John Redwood, the former Tory leadership contender who is now chairman of the Conservative economic affairs committee, shot back into the Tory political debate with a carefully timed blog last week which said Osborne's deficit reduction plan was too timid. His blog, in which he said that Osborne should have imposed more drastic cuts in the first two years, is attracting attention because Kenneth Clarke is letting it be known that he agrees with some of the analysis.
It was rear-end loaded instead of front-end loaded. When you do these things you have to do the reductions, or the freeze, up front. They decided to have the easy year the first year. The longer you leave it the more difficult it is, because the more it is your problem rather than an inherited problem. We need tax cuts to increase aggregate demand and to get the economy moving.
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But he has gladly accepted the invitation from the Lib Dems for the coalition parties to differentiate themselves. This was noticed by the right when Osborne announced in his speech to the Conservative conference that Britain would cut its carbon emissions " no slower but also no faster than our fellow countries in Europe ". One veteran Tory said: But No 10 hasn't yet reconciled itself to this change of course on the supply side.
You could see it at the party conference on climate change — on credit easing he went further than he was intending to.
It hits all three things. Nobody in the Osborne circle is vulgar enough to talk openly about his leadership ambitions. But one ally confirms it is on his mind. Indeed he needs it to take place — only a George Osborne succession can truly cement his political legacy.
Long before the Tories were elected in Osborne was building up and courting contacts in local government, especially in those northern Labour heartlands that have traditionally been no go areas for the Tories. That also provides an indication of another difference between the two men — the scale of their ambition. David Cameron has always had a relatively modest political objective — the return of a Tory majority government. If anything, Osborne is likely to seek to accelerate the process of attempting to reform — and transform — the Tory brand.
Which in turn leads to another contrast. David Cameron is politically astute. But George Osborne is a political scholar.
But his success in delivering an election-winning economic recovery has recast back-bench perceptions of him. The prospect of a leader who gets both the politics and the economics right may well prove alluring to many of his parliamentary colleagues. Osborne is said to have a fascination with science. He is also said to relish delving into the nuts and bolts of business policy.
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The nuts and bolts. As a result the whole thing will require some very careful choreography. Think of that game Jenga, where players have to delicately remove wooden blocks from a tower to gradually build it higher. David Cameron and George Osborne have been one of the greatest political double acts.